Modeling the distribution of the West Nile and Rift Valley Fever vector Culex pipiens in arid and semi-arid regions of the Middle East and North Africa.

BACKGROUND: The Middle East North Africa (MENA) region is under continuous threat of the re-emergence of West Nile virus (WNV) and Rift Valley Fever virus (RVF), two pathogens transmitted by the vector species Culex pipiens. Predicting areas at high risk for disease transmission requires an accurate model of vector distribution, however, most Cx. pipiens distribution modeling has been confined to temperate, forested habitats. Modeling species distributions across a heterogeneous landscape structure requires a flexible modeling method to capture variation in mosquito response to predictors as well as occurrence data points taken from a sufficient range of habitat types. METHODS: We used presence-only data from Egypt and Lebanon to model the population distribution of Cx. pipiens across a portion of the MENA that also encompasses Jordan, Syria, and Israel. Models were created with a set of environmental predictors including bioclimatic data, human population density, hydrological data, and vegetation indices, and built using maximum entropy (Maxent) and boosted regression tree (BRT) methods. Models were created with and without the inclusion of human population density. RESULTS: Predictions of Maxent and BRT models were strongly correlated in habitats with high probability of occurrence (Pearson's r=0.774, r=0.734), and more moderately correlated when predicting into regions that exceeded the range of the training data (r=0.666,r=0.558). All models agreed in predicting high probability of occupancy around major urban areas, along the banks of the Nile, the valleys of Israel, Lebanon, and Jordan, and southwestern Saudi Arabia. The most powerful predictors of Cx. pipiens habitat were human population density (60.6% Maxent models, 34.9% BRT models) and the seasonality of the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) (44.7% Maxent, 16.3% BRT). Maxent models tended to be dominated by a single predictor. Areas of high probability corresponded with sites of independent surveys or previous disease outbreaks. CONCLUSIONS: Cx. pipiens occurrence was positively associated with areas of high human population density and consistent vegetation cover, but was not significantly driven by temperature and rainfall, suggesting human-induced habitat change such as irrigation and urban infrastructure has a greater influence on vector distribution in this region than in temperate zones.

Ecology of the mosquito larvae in urban environments of Cairo Governorate, Egypt.

Mosquitoes were surveyed over one year period in two localities in Cairo representing different levels of urban planning: El-Muqattam (planned) and Abu-Seir (unplanned). Culex pipiens, Cx. perexiguus, Cx. pusillus, Ochlerotatus caspius, Culiseta longiareolata and Anopheles multicolor were the collected species at both sites. Mosquitoes were more common in Abu-Seir than in El-Muqattam, with larvae of the filaria vector Cx. pipiens accounting for 81% and 52% of recorded individuals at these sites, respectively. Five types of the potential breeding habitats were detected of which, the cesspits (El-Muqattam) and drainage canals (Abu-Seir) were the most common while springs in El-Muqattam and drainage canals in Abu-Seir were the most productive types. Both Cx. pipiens and Cx. perexiguus bred year round with peaks of abundance coinciding with higher temperatures.

Land cover in Upper Egypt assessed using regional and global land cover products derived from MODIS imagery.

Irrigation along the Nile River has resulted in dramatic changes in the biophysical environment of Upper Egypt. In this study we used a combination of MODIS 250 m NDVI data and Landsat imagery to identify areas that changed from 2001-2008 as a result of irrigation and water-level fluctuations in the Nile River and nearby water bodies. We used two different methods of time series analysis -- principal components (PCA) and harmonic decomposition (HD), applied to the MODIS 250 m NDVI images to derive simple three-class land cover maps and then assessed their accuracy using a set of reference polygons derived from 30 m Landsat 5 and 7 imagery. We analyzed our MODIS 250 m maps against a new MODIS global land cover product (MOD12Q1 collection 5) to assess whether regionally specific mapping approaches are superior to a standard global product. Results showed that the accuracy of the PCA-based product was greater than the accuracy of either the HD or MOD12Q1 products for the years 2001, 2003, and 2008. However, the accuracy of the PCA product was only slightly better than the MOD12Q1 for 2001 and 2003. Overall, the results suggest that our PCA-based approach produces a high level of user and producer accuracies, although the MOD12Q1 product also showed consistently high accuracy. Overlay of 2001-2008 PCA-based maps showed a net increase of 12 129 ha of irrigated vegetation, with the largest increase found from 2006-2008 around the Districts of Edfu and Kom Ombo. This result was unexpected in light of ambitious government plans to develop 336 000 ha of irrigated agriculture around the Toshka Lakes.

Identification of male specimens of the Culex pipiens complex (Diptera: Culicidae) in the hybrid zone using morphology and molecular techniques.

The identification of the members of the Culex pipiens L. complex in arbovirus surveillance programs relies heavily on the use of morphology. In this work, we studied Cx. pipiens complex male mosquitoes collected from nine different locations, from northern, southern, and the hybrid zone sites in North America; Cairo, Egypt; and Nairobi, Kenya. Specimens were identified using DV/D ratio and also using amplification of the acetylcholinesterase (ACE.2) gene by both conventional and real-time polymerase chain reaction, and examination of the CQ11 locus. Consistent with previous findings, the morphological and molecular identifications did not always agree, particularly in regions of extensive introgression. There was an increased frequency of hybrid forms in late summer and early fall in Champaign Co., IL, that is north of the previously described Cx. pipiens complex hybrid zone. This represents an expansion of the North American hybrid zone. The biological and epidemiological relevance of the high degree of introgression and the late season increase in the proportion of intermediate forms is discussed.

Comparison of mosquito control programs in seven urban sites in Africa, the Middle East, and the Americas

Mosquito control programs at seven urban sites in Kenya, Egypt, Israel, Costa Rica, and Trinidad are described and compared. Site-specific urban and disease characteristics, organizational diagrams, and strengths, weaknesses, obstacles and threats (SWOT) analysis tools are used to provide a descriptive assessment of each mosquito control program, and provide a comparison of the factors affecting mosquito abatement. The information for SWOT analysis is collected from surveys, focus-group discussions, and personal communication. SWOT analysis identified various issues affecting the efficiency and sustainability of mosquito control operations. The main outcome of our work was the description and comparison of mosquito control operations within the context of each study site's biological, social, political, management, and economic conditions. The issues identified in this study ranged from lack of inter-sector collaboration to operational issues of mosquito control efforts. A lack of sustainable funding for mosquito control was a common problem for most sites. Many unique problems were also identified, which included lack of mosquito surveillance, lack of law enforcement, and negative consequences of human behavior. Identifying common virtues and shortcomings of mosquito control operations is useful in identifying "best practices" for mosquito control operations, thus leading to better control of mosquito biting and mosquito-borne disease transmission.

Comparison of mosquito control programs in seven urban sites in Africa, the Middle East, and the Americas.

Mosquito control programs at seven urban sites in Kenya, Egypt, Israel, Costa Rica, and Trinidad are described and compared. Site-specific urban and disease characteristics, organizational diagrams, and strengths, weaknesses, obstacles and threats (SWOT) analysis tools are used to provide a descriptive assessment of each mosquito control program, and provide a comparison of the factors affecting mosquito abatement. The information for SWOT analysis is collected from surveys, focus-group discussions, and personal communication. SWOT analysis identified various issues affecting the efficiency and sustainability of mosquito control operations. The main outcome of our work was the description and comparison of mosquito control operations within the context of each study site's biological, social, political, management, and economic conditions. The issues identified in this study ranged from lack of inter-sector collaboration to operational issues of mosquito control efforts. A lack of sustainable funding for mosquito control was a common problem for most sites. Many unique problems were also identified, which included lack of mosquito surveillance, lack of law enforcement, and negative consequences of human behavior. Identifying common virtues and shortcomings of mosquito control operations is useful in identifying "best practices" for mosquito control operations, thus leading to better control of mosquito biting and mosquito-borne disease transmission.

Isolation of west nile and sindbis viruses from mosquitoes collected in the Nile Valley of Egypt during an outbreak of Rift Valley fever.

As part of an evaluation of potential vectors of arboviruses during a Rift Valley fever (RVF) outbreak in the Nile Valley of Egypt in August 1993, we collected mosquitoes in villages with known RVF viral activity. Mosquitoes were sorted to species, pooled, and processed for virus isolation both by intracerebral inoculation into suckling mice and by inoculation into cell culture. A total of 33 virus isolates was made from 36,024 mosquitoes. Viruses were initially identified by indirect fluorescent antibody testing and consisted of 30 flaviviruses (all members of the Japanese encephalitis complex, most probably West Nile [WN] virus) and three alphaviruses (all members of western equine encephalitis complex, most probably Sindbis). The identity of selected viruses was confirmed by reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction and sequencing. Culex antennatus (Becker) and Culex perexiguus Theobald accounted for five (17%) and 23 (77%) of the WN virus isolations, respectively. Despite isolation of viruses from 32 pools of mosquitoes (both WN and Sindbis viruses were isolated from a single pool), RVF virus was not isolated from these mosquitoes, even though most of them are known competent vectors collected during an ongoing RVF outbreak. Thus, it should be remembered, that even during a known arbovirus outbreak, other arboviruses may still be circulating and causing disease.